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August 20, 2015      4:42 PM

SB: Trump leads in Texas but does not likely have the staying power of Patrick or Cruz

Trump’s bluster is clearly what Texas Republicans prefer for the moment, but the durability of that is up for debate

Some were surprised this morning to find out that a poll of likely Republican Texas voters puts real estate magnate and provocateur Donald Trump ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz in the Junior Senator’s home state by a significant margin. In the poll, Trump is the choice of 24% of likely GOP voters here. Cruz is second, winning the support of 16% of Republicans questioned in the survey conducted by Gravis Marketing and commissioned by the Texas Bipartisan Justice Committee.

Committing the sin of reading too much into one poll is not something I’m about to do. But it is worth nothing at this point in the 2016 cycle that, at least anecdotally, the over-the-top rhetoric offered by Trump on the campaign trail is the same kind of vitriol rewarded by GOP voters across Texas in the 2014 election cycle.

Reporting on Texas House and Senate races – as well as the statewide contests in 2014 – presented the eye-opening opportunity to travel thousands of miles and engage with GOP voters at town halls, forums, and other events throughout the grueling primary. The folks who attended those events are the same kind of voters who regularly drive around their neighborhoods looking for “Vote Here signs to make sure they don’t miss an election. The most active of the active.

One of the most striking characteristics of that voter is their palpable desire to see candidates really duke it out, loudly proclaim their conservatism, and “not be afraid to stand up for what they believe in.” Then-Sen. Dan Patrick excelled at this in a way that could not be overcome by three other qualified candidates vying to hold the gavel in the Texas Senate.

When Patrick clashed with incumbent David Dewhurst in a debate in Kerrville during the runoff, for example, voters who preferred the senator from Houston said his best attributes were fearlessness and full-throated conservatism.

By Scott Braddock