August 20, 2015      4:42 PM
SB: Trump leads in Texas but does not likely have the staying power of Patrick or Cruz
Trump’s bluster is clearly what Texas Republicans prefer for the moment, but the durability of that is up for debate
Some were surprised this morning to find
out that a poll of likely Republican Texas voters puts real estate magnate and
provocateur Donald Trump ahead of
Sen. Ted Cruz in the Junior
Senator’s home state by a significant margin. In the poll, Trump is the choice
of 24% of likely GOP voters here. Cruz is second, winning the support of 16% of
Republicans questioned in the survey conducted by Gravis Marketing and commissioned
by the Texas Bipartisan Justice Committee.
Committing the sin of reading too much
into one poll is not something I’m about to do. But it is worth nothing at this
point in the 2016 cycle that, at least anecdotally, the over-the-top rhetoric offered
by Trump on the campaign trail is the same kind of vitriol rewarded by GOP voters
across Texas in the 2014 election cycle.
Reporting on Texas House and Senate
races – as well as the statewide contests in 2014 – presented the eye-opening
opportunity to travel thousands of miles and engage with GOP voters at town
halls, forums, and other events throughout the grueling primary. The folks who
attended those events are the same kind of voters who regularly drive around
their neighborhoods looking for “Vote Here”
signs to make sure they don’t miss an election. The most active of the active.
One of the most striking characteristics
of that voter is their palpable desire to see candidates really duke it out,
loudly proclaim their conservatism, and “not be afraid to stand up for what
they believe in.” Then-Sen. Dan Patrick
excelled at this in a way that could not be overcome by three other qualified candidates
vying to hold the gavel in the Texas Senate.
When Patrick clashed with incumbent David Dewhurst in a debate in Kerrville
during the runoff, for example, voters who preferred the senator from Houston
said his best attributes were fearlessness and full-throated conservatism.
By Scott Braddock
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