Royal Masset
Editorial Contributions to the Quorum Report

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February 9, 2012      3:22 PM

MASSET: JOHN CONNALLY WAS OUR FIRST RICK PERRY

Occasional contributor and one time political director at the Republican Party of Texas considers bookies and a browse through Texas history in looking at today's election dynamics

WHAT THE IRISH BOOKIES SAY TODAY

This is what you really want to read so I’m putting it first.  My Irish bookies at Intrade.com have predicted everything correctly in previous Republican primaries.   Here’s where their money is now being placed today Thursday, Feb. 9.

Mitt Romney has an 81% chance to become the Republican nominee for president in 2012.    Rick Santorum bas a 9% and Newt Gingrich has a 3% chance of becoming the nominee. By contrast Rick Perry has a 0.1% (one in a thousand) chance of being nominated and Sara Palin has a 0.2% chance.

Obama has a 60% of being re-elected President in 2012.  Yet the Democrats have only a 20% Chance of controlling the Senate and a 33% chance of controlling the House.  Clearly the Republican debates have hurt our presidential candidates but our Congressional candidates are doing fine.

 

PERRY AND JOHN CONNALLY

I’m genuinely puzzled that almost nothing has been written about former Texas Governor John Connally who, like Rick Perry, ran for president.   Connally, like Perry, was considered the front runner for several months. In 1979-80.  Connally raised $11 million, the most by any candidate at that time.

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By Royal Masset

Copyright February 09, 2012, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

November 22, 2011      3:27 PM

MASSET: LOOK TO THE BOOKIES FOR ACCURATE PROGNOSTICATIONS

Republicans need to countenance revenue increases to balance the budget

I’m a big believer in the accuracy of the online future prediction markets, AKA the Irish bookies.  According to them, as of today, Monday November 21, 2011, President Obama will defeat Mitt Romney in the 2012 race for president.  The Republicans will not take over the US Senate but wll keep control of the US House.I believe these predictions are accurate.  A few weeks ago I thought Republicans would continue our winning streak from the 2010 elections.  I don’t believe that anymore.  In 2010 Democrats were blamed for our economic problems.  Now we are being blamed.   Groups like OCCUPY are not big Republican supporters.

A major weakness for the Republican Party has been the unremitting debates which feature eight serious candidates.   This does not give our best candidates a chance to let us know what they would do as President.

According to my Irish bookies (Intrade) today the odds of out strongest candidates receiving the Republican nomination for President are:

Romney 68.5%, Gingrich 13.6%, Ron Paul 5.5%, Huntsman 5.5%, Perry 3.1% and Cain 2,9%.

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By Royal Masset

Copyright November 22, 2011, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

March 29, 2011      3:26 PM

MASSET: DEMOCRATS SQUANDERED AN OPPORTUNITY ON VOTER ID

Even a lopsided minority can have an impact in shaping legislation

In over forty years of observing legislative debate I thought the way the Democrats handled the Voter ID bill last week was the most disgraceful.    As expected the Voter ID Bill was easily passed by the House and Senate.   But not expected was the extreme angry opposition it faced.  Despite many hours of debate in the House, the Democrats did a poor job of arguing for its defeat.  Their level of debate was so poor that Democrat legislators will rarely be taken seriously for the rest of the session.

While the super Republican majority meant that Voter ID was sure to pass, Democrat legislators could have used the back mike to point out weaknesses in the bill and make positive suggestions.  They could have tried to build their future. Instead, with the exception of Anchia and Hochberg most testimony from Democrats was very emotional and negative.  Republicans were constantly hammered for being racists or worse.

It got so bad that I suspect even liberal groups who wish to get something passed this session will avoid working through most Democrats. Being a minority party on the floor does not mean that you cannot shape debate and maybe win a few amendments

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By Royal Masset

Copyright March 29, 2011, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 20, 2011      7:57 AM

MASSET: TO TEA PARTY FRIENDS, SPEAKER RACE IS OVER

Tea Party supporter Royal Masset weighs in on Speaker race

I support the Texas TEA Party.  Especially when it focuses on limited government.  I supported their attempt to oust Speaker Straus.  But we lost that fight.  It is over.  We lost by a good margin.  It is time for us use our energy to shape Texas’ budget.

 

WHAT HAPPENED

At no time after the November election did anyone tell me with some degree of insight, that Straus could be defeated.   Before Christmas my best sources told me that there were 29 sure votes against Straus.  Ken Paxton was considered a place holder.  In neither his political career in Austin nor civic career in Collin County did Ken have the type of leadership experience required to be an effective House Speaker.

Several sources told me that if a trend developed against Straus, there was a well respected candidate who would emerge.

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By Royal Masset

Copyright January 20, 2011, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

November 10, 2010      4:08 PM

ROYAL MASSET: ON THE 2010 ELECTION

Masset weighs in on the numbers, the next redistricting and the speaker race

The national Republican sweep was expected.  The magnitude of Republican victory in Texas was not.  We expected to win big in 2010 and possibly retake the 88 State Representative seats we won in 2002, which would have been a net gain of 11 seats over the 2000 election.

Early in the evening Harvey Kronberg in his New 8 TV persona, predicted Republicans might pick up 15 house seats.  Thinking Harvey might be guilty of a rare case of hyperbole, I ran my own analysis which showed we were leading substantially in  20 seats formerly held by Democrats.   For about an hour I thought I had made some great mathematical error like forgetting how to count.

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Copyright November 10, 2010, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

October 27, 2010      4:55 PM

MASSET ON THE 2010 ELECTION

First mid-terms are almost always bad for Presidents but the big questionis who grabs the credit and runs with it

“Investors” on Intrade.Com, aka “The Irish bookies” are  predicting 2010 will be a great year for Republicans.   As this article is being written betters believe Republicans have a 88.4% chance of controlling the House after the elections.  They are predicting, however, that Republicans only have a 43.5% chance of controlling the Senate. 

Shortly after the 2008 election Karl Rove and I predicted that the 2010 elections would probably be a Republican landslide.  We based our predictions on the fact that midterm elections were cruel to new Presidents.  Except for W, most presidents had terrible midterms.  Reagan’s 1982 election resulted in the defeat for every client I had  (except Edmund Kuempel) and gave liberal Democrats their strongest statewide freshman class ever in Texas. 

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Copyright October 27, 2010, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 22, 2010      3:40 PM

MASSET: THE MASSACHUSETTS SPECIAL AND GOP FORTUNES

Always insightful, frequently controversial, Royal Masset was fighting in the trenches for the GOP when Texas was a one-party Democratic state. We offer his take.

Every commentary you hear about the Massachusetts’ Special Election for US Senate, says it was a great Republican victory.

It was a great election and we Republicans will benefit.  But whether we will win back control of Congress in November depends on what we learn from this election.

The major fact to understand is that this election was won by Independents, not Republicans.   It helped that Obama really muffed his handling of his health care proposals.  To get his 60 Senate votes Obama was willing to give special tax cuts to union members and expensive projects to Nebraska and Louisiana.  

Deal making is hardly unknown in politics.   But these deals were so crass in the magnitude of their corruptness as to shock everyone.  I felt a tinge of nostalgia for the pre-TV fifties when this type of corruption was normal.

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By Royal Masset

Copyright January 22, 2010, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

October 30, 2009      9:42 AM

MASSET: PROPOSITION 4, CREATING MORE TIER 1 UNIVERSITIES IS A BAD IDEA

"...Although this affects over 100,000 contracts the legislature never bothered to take this issue up. We ignore and can’t keep our word to our own citizens while we dream of creating 7 new 1st tier universities."

Next Tuesday Texans will vote on 11 propositions to amend our Texas constitution. Proposition number four reads in full  “The constitutional amendment establishing the national research university fund to enable emerging research universities in this state to achieve national prominence as major research universities and transferring the balance of the higher education fund to the national research university fund.”

It sounds wonderful but I believe it is a bad idea and uses a bad process.  Establishing a national research university fund does not require a constitutional amendment.  This will just be another legal mandate hanging around the neck of future legislators.

All Propositions will pass on November 3, 2009.

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By Royal Masset

Copyright October 30, 2009, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

June 15, 2009      2:24 PM

ROYAL MASSET: WHO IS LEADING TEXAS?

"...Talk about substantive ideas of governing. Stop chanting the word “conservative” like a village idiot. The word has lost its meaning."

The 81st legislative session was the strangest one I’ve ever seen.  The lesson I’ve learned from this session is that our Texas legislature is almost superfluous.  As long as the Executive branch keeps on functioning Texas can keep buggering on without a legislature.  (Of course at some point people who buy our bonds need to know Texas will pay them back.)

The big truth here is that the legal structure and form of our Texas government is almost meaningless.  What does count is leadership.  While we make much of our government being a constitutional parliamentary system derived from the British, we often forget, or never really knew, that Great Britain does not have a written constitution.  Their government was shaped by hundreds of years of traditions put in play by families who routinely murdered each other for power.   Even the great Magna Charter was just an attempt by English Realtors to limit the eminent domain rights of King John.  

Power in Texas government belongs to those who exercise it.   We are constantly being told that the Governor of Texas is an inherently weak governor.  The story line is that after the Republicans were booted out of the Capitol in 1873, our constitution was rewritten to make sure no future Republican Governor would have the power to rule over us.  All this is historically true but the Texas Governor can and should exercise great power when needed.  History is filled with leaders who rose without having a great title with great authority.   The most powerful person in the s\Soviet Communist party was called its “Secretary“.  Julius Caesar’s started his rise to power as head of Rome’s Park’s and Wildlife Department.  (before football players there were gladiators)  

 

THE LOST SESSION

The key to understanding the 81st session is that there was no leadership. Texas Republicans have great candidates who are world class at being elected to office. But no one who really wants to govern.

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Copyright June 15, 2009, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

April 20, 2009      11:32 AM

MASSET: THIS IS WHERE I CAME IN…

Regular columnist Royal Masset began his career with tax revolt politics in the 1970’s. He reflects on tax revolt history as well as the strengths, weakness and prospects of the recent “Tea Party” demonstrations

My involvement in Texas Politics started in the late 1970s when Proposition 13, the Jarvis tax cuts, passed in California.   I finished Law School (at Austin) in 1976.  At the time I was a libertarian/states rights independent.  My first major campaign was working on the 1976 Republican Primary candidacy of Ronald Reagan.

In 1978, encouraged by a then relatively unknown Jack Gullahorn, I formed a group called the Texas Taxpayers League.  At the time special interest groups were starting to dominate state politics.  Speaker Clayton and Governor Briscoe were besieged with requests to spend more money.  Public Schools were winning court battles whose decisions were mandating much greater spending in education.  Jack told me that a highly visible tax revolt was needed immediately to push the legislators in the right direction.

In those days reporters were easy to work with.   Radio reporters were so poorly paid they often lived on food stamps.    TV reporters were gorgeous and articulate but I don’t remember any who had professional degrees in journalism.  This was still a new field.  As executive director of the Austin Citizens League I used to call press conferences almost every week.  Remarkably the media would almost always show up and I would get tons of coverage for items that wouldn‘t make today’s news.  As long as I could give them a story that would help fill up their schedules they were happy.

The Texas Taxpayers League was created out of thin air.  We had no by-laws, no money and only me as a member.  That quickly changed.  By monitoring the legislature’s daily clip service, which was the only “Quorum Report” at the time, I quickly located about 40 taxpayer protest groups around Texas.  Almost all of them were formed in the wake of  Proposition 13, the great tax cut amendment in California. Within a week the Texas Taxpayer League represented those 40 groups and over 10,000 members.  Every time one of those groups visited Austin I would host a press conference for them in the Speakers Committee room, which was almost where I lived.

I then invited Howard Jarvis to Texas.  His proposition 13 had passed in California in June of 1978 and a real taxpayer revolt was on fire.   Remarkably he accepted.  By sheer luck I came into contact with Nick Acuff, who was close to oilman Eddie Chiles.   Eddie footed most of the bill for an event in Fort Worth with Howard Jarvis that attracted, I believe, 10,000 people.

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Copyright April 20, 2009, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

February 25, 2009      3:35 PM

MASSET: THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR OF TEXAS

Long time contributor Royal Masset explains why he thinks Kay Bailey Hutchison will be the next Texas governor -- plus a little history

Barring a major turn of events Senator Hutchison will be our next Governor.    I believe she has an 80% probability of defeating Governor Perry should he run again.   I have seen no internal polling but don’t trust any early polls about the Governor’s race.   Kay will win because she is simply the strongest candidate ever fielded by the Republican Party of Texas.   The best evidence about how Kay will do in the 2010 Republican Primary for Governor is provided by her victory in the 1993 Special Election for US Senate.

 

THE 1993 SPECIAL ELECTION FOR SENATE

Examining the results of the 1993 Special Election for US Senate tells us a lot about the current race for Governor.  Senator Bentsen resigned from his iconic Senate Seat in January of 1993 when Bill Clinton nominated him to serve as his Secretary of the Treasury.   (Even though he was a Democrat, I would sure prefer Lloyd Bentsen as Secretary of the Treasury right now than the current crew of tax cheats and odious pissants who are clueless about how the financial world works.)   Governor Ann Richards appointed Bob Krueger to fill the vacancy left by Bentsen until a special election was held on May 1, 1993. 

Keep in mind that Democrats were still very much in power in 1993.  In the 1992 General Election we Republicans gained only two major seats:  One Supreme Court seat and Lena Geurrero’s Railroad Commission seat which was unexpected.  Bill Clinton lost to President Bush in Texas by a close 37-41 margin.  By 1993 only 9 Congressional seats out of 30 were held by Republicans, hardly evidence of the great Republican victories to come.

Revisionist historians blame Senator Krueger‘s defeat on Krueger.  As soon as he lost he was proclaimed a poor candidate.  Ann Richards was castigated for appointing Krueger and never really recovered from her drop in popularity.  A last ditch TV ad having Krueger saying “Hasta La Vista, baby” to Kay was deemed evidence that Krueger  didn’t know what he was doing.

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Copyright February 25, 2009, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

November 11, 2008      12:30 PM

ROYAL MASSET: BRIGHTER DAYS ARE AHEAD FOR REPUBLICANS

Texas GOP, though, must shift from conservative/liberal thinking to urban/rural thinking, says former RPT political director.

The 2010 Elections in Texas

The fortunes of the Republican Party are changing. 2010 will be a great election year for Republicans. This is especially important for us because redistricting will be the major task of our legislature in 2011.

  
For the last two years I have predicted nothing but bad news for Republicans in the 2008 elections. Except for Obama beating Hillary, all of my predictions were accurate. I had to apologize to Harvey Kronberg for not writing many columns for Quorum Report. Anything I wrote about Republicans was invariably negative and I got tired of predicting negative things for my own party.

Why Republicans will dominate the 2010 election in Texas 

1) The coattails of Obama will not be around in 2010. Even if he is a popular president, he will not be on the ballot. Coattails are not created by one candidate’s popularity. They are the result of a strong Get Out The Vote machine, and the Democrats will not have one. 

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Copyright November 11, 2008, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

September 23, 2008      5:18 PM

MASSET: CHANGING THE PARADIGM--THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Long time contributor Royal Masset shares thoughts on the presidential election

Gods are immortal.  They can do anything.  But when belief in a God dies, God dies.

At this point in time I believe Barak Obama will be elected president..  The Irish bookies (September 22 PM) give Obama a 52% chance of being elected president.    If the economy continues to be the overriding issue before the campaign, Obama will win.  If terrorism and war replace the economy as the major issue, especially if Cold War fears of Russia are re-ignited, McCain will win.  Unless Russia or Pakistan does something  really stupid the economy will remain the dominant election issue.

Every Presidential election I’ve followed since 1956 has been called a watershed event that would change history.  In my lifetime only the Reagan election did so.  I believe the 2008 election will change history.   The simple truth is that the paradigm which has dominated our two party system since FDR is no more.  This isn’t due to the implosion of the two party system but because of its success.  The agendas that were fought over in my lifetime have largely been achieved or at least reasonably compromised.  . 

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Copyright September 23, 2008, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

March 5, 2008      1:30 PM

ROYAL MASSET: REPUBLICANS HEAVILY INFLUENCE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY

Our Republican commentator revises opinion of coming GOP apocalypse

Prior to yesterday’s election many rumors circulated about efforts to encourage Republicans to vote in the Democrat Primary. I told everyone who asked me that this was hogwash. Like an urban myth that wouldn’t die, the idea that Republicans would vote in sufficient numbers to affect the Democrat Primary was preposterous and, I’m sure, had never happened in Texas.

I was wrong. At least 500,000 Republicans voted in the 2008 Texas Democrat Primary.

The proof of this is simple and conclusive. In the Democrat Primary (Democrat Primary numbers cited here are with 16 precincts not yet counted. Republican numbers are 100% complete.) 2,856,813 votes were cast in the Presidential race. For the Democrat U. S. Senate race, which was heavily contested by 4 candidates, only 2,163,477 votes were cast. 693,336 fewer votes were cast in the US Senate race than in the Presidential race. A decrease of this magnitude is unprecedented. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that at least 500,000 of that 693,336 vote decrease was caused by Republicans voting in the Democrat primary for the sole purpose of influencing the outcome of the Democrat race to nominate a president.

In the Republican Primary 1,380,907 votes were cast for President. For US Senate, which unlike the Democrat Senate race has no credible competition, 1,216,732 votes were cast, mostly for John Cornyn. This is a much smaller drop off than the Democrats had.

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Copyright March 05, 2008, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 23, 2008      4:03 PM

ROYAL MASSET: THE NEWEST MEXICAN TELENOVELA -- THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

Masset explains why the nominations are all but done deals

The Conventional wisdom is that the 2008 Primaries will not produce clear cut presidential nominees until the national party conventions. The conventional wisdom is wrong.

The Democrat nominee for president will be Hillary Clinton. The Republican nominee will probably be John McCain.

The media will always have its biases. But all media have one bias in common. To increase advertising revenue they must maximize their viewers and readers. To accomplish this they make their coverage of political debates and speeches as exciting as possible. In 2008 they have found a method that works. They have turned otherwise boring speeches and debates, which seem to be held every couple of days, into a format that resembles Mexican telenovelas. Boring policy statements have been replaced by personal feelings, which soon escalate into attacks. Candidates get angry and cry. One husband looks like he could beat up his wife’s opponent at any time.

And of course all these political races are cliffhangers. We have to stay tuned to next week’s election to see who is going to be the new temporary leader. It is probably good that the media gins up interest in our political process. It is important for the public to believe that their vote counts and will make a difference.

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Copyright January 23, 2008, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

August 14, 2007      7:09 AM

MASSET: KARL ROVE

Regular QR contributor Royal Masset busts a few myths as Rove prepares to leave the White House

I don’t like Karl Rove. Never have. He’s different. I never understood where he was coming from. The Karl I knew was always focused on politics. Always. I thought of him as a hyper college Republican who never grew up. With him winning wasn’t the most important thing. It was everything. .

Karl is probably the greatest political campaign tactician in history. Both his 2000 and 2004 Presidential campaigns were masterpieces. When all networks declared Al Gore the winner in 2000, Karl Rove knew they had made an error in calculating the Florida vote. He knew. Karl didn’t have a "hunch" or a "gut" feeling that the projections were wrong and that the West Florida vote "might" break for Bush. Karl knew exactly how Florida would come out and that Bush would carry it.

They say history is written by the victors. That’s not true. The victors have the first shot at writing history. But in time the victors die out and the next generation writes the version of history that most suites its needs. Even the most objective historians find that their commercial and academic success depends on their ability to present interesting new viewpoints.

So here’s my brief history of Karl Rove. I just want to raise some points that I haven’t yet read about Karl Rove.

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Copyright August 14, 2007, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

July 2, 2007      8:22 AM

MASSET: REPUBLICAN EXCEPTIONALISM IS DEAD -- 1980-2006 RIP

Long time RPT political director, Royal Masset mourns the death of the Party of Reagan and the dangerous future it portends

The world is a better place because of those who made the Republican Party of Texas one of the finest institutions on the face on the earth. We Texan Republicans revived the national Republican Party after Nixon. But we now have to face one great truth. The party whose philosophy, articulated by Ronald Reagan, won the cold war and changed world history by promoting economic liberty and led the Unites Sates into a golden age, is no more. RIP Republicans. Our previous leaders were giants. But the era of Republican Exceptionalism is dead. It is over.

The Immigration debate highlights what has gone wrong with the Republican Party. Our party was once united by a coherent conservative philosophy long before we found our spokesman in The Great Communicator. Our Judeo-Christian faith and American culture was something we lived, not something we relegated to political slogans. We believed we had a mission to build an America that would be an example for all mankind, a shiny city on a hill. In one of his last speeches Reagan counseled us to appeal to the better angels of our nature by focusing on our hopes and not our fears.

Unfortunately the current Republican leadership isn’t following Reagan’s wish. If the Republican Party has a coherent philosophy I don’t know what it is. We’re certainly not on the side of liberty. We used to believe in family. But now we oppose the Latino culture that is far more family friendly than ours. We used to believe in the sacredness of life. Now almost a majority of Republicans support pro-abortion candidates. But to show our conservative righteousness we make a big deal of opposing letting people die in peace, same sex marriage and favoring the rights of embryonic stem cells. For living people faced with real problems we offer little help and no hope. Our failure to enact immigration reform is a disgrace.

Republican leaders replaced by radio/cable entertainers

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Copyright July 02, 2007, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

April 23, 2007      7:49 AM

ROYAL MASSET: THE VOTER ID BILL WILL KILL MY MOTHER'S RIGHT TO VOTE

Long time Republican consultant debunks arguments behind Voter ID bill to be considered on House floor today

I was a big fan of voter ID until the federal government declared my mother Aimee dead. The reason I've not been heavily involved in the political arena for the last three years is because I've been taking care of my 91-year-old mother who is a complete invalid but is very much alive.

I found there was no way of proving her alive. Invalid 91 year olds do not have driver's licenses, passports, employment badges, gun permits & etc. Since I'm taking care of her in my home she has no bills with her name and address. I can't even get her a birth certificate since she lacks the ID necessary for a notary to verify. Under HB 218 my mother, who is a registered voter in Austin, cannot vote in Texas. Anyone who says all legal voters under this bill can vote doesn't know what he is talking about. And anyone who says that a lack of IDs won't discriminate against otherwise legal minority voters is lying.

I agree with David Dewhurst's comments that we should "ensure that we maximize the number of voters, which is all in our best interests, but that we limit our elections to American citizens. I can't imagine anyone who could be against that concept." I agree with David 100%. And if he is a man of intelligence and integrity he will not support HB 218 since it does the exact opposite of what he says he wants. HB 218 will lower voter turnout. There is no evidence on the record that non-American citizens have voted in past Texas elections in a manner that would have been stopped by HB 218.

Bills should only be passed if they solve problems or otherwise make our lives better. No testimony was given on HB 218 proving a problem exists that can be solved by requiring extra Voter ID. I have no doubt that HB 218 does not solve any problems. It will create new problems.

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Copyright April 23, 2007, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

March 6, 2007      4:14 PM

ROYAL MASSET: A FEBRUARY PRIMARY IS BAD FOR TEXAS

Regular contributor Royal Masset weighs in on a February primary

There is much talk about moving our primary election date from March 11, 2008 to February 5^th 2008. The idea is that we need an earlier primary date to "have more sway in choosing presidential nominees." Other states such as California, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey may do this. This is an extremely bad idea.

It is certainly possible that the Republican presidential nominee will be determined on February 5^th. My memory may be wrong but I don’t recall any Texas primary having great impact on the Republican Party’s presidential nominee after the 1976 primary which back then was held in May. In 1976 Ronald Reagan, who had lost 11 previous primaries and was considered a lost cause, won all 100 Texas Republican delegates to the National Convention. He still couldn’t overtake President Ford’s enormous lead, but his upset victory in Texas made the 1976 race close and set him up to become the 1980 Republican Presidential nominee who defeated President Carter in the General Election.

In 2008 it is very possible that the Race for Republican Presidential nominee will not be settled early. Following Reagan’s nomination, most Republican nominees were anointed more than elected. As is our wont we Republicans preferred our leaders to be vetted like corporate CEOs. In 1996 we all knew it was Bob Dole’s turn. In 2000 it was George’s turn. It was supposed to be Jeb’s turn in 2008 but George couldn’t keep the dynastic momentum going any better than Teddy did in the Democratic Party.

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Copyright March 06, 2007, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

February 7, 2007      7:43 AM

MASSET: GOVERNOR PERRY IS RIGHT ON HPV VACCINES

Regular contributor challenges conservative objections to Perry's Executive Order mandating HPV vacinne

Governor Perry did the right thing when he issued an executive order calling for 6^th grade girls to receive HPV vaccinations. It was especially courageous considering the predictable opposition it will engender among Rick’s conservative base.

Had this issue originated in the legislature the odds of it being passed into law would be 1 in 50. It wouldn’t have happened. The only Companion Bills in its favor were carried by Jessica Farrar, newly elected Vice-Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus (who passed one minor bill in the 79^th regular session), and Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, who as chair of the Texas Senate Democratic Caucus led the Democrat Senators to New Mexico to stop redistricting and told the San Antonio Express News that a Republican state Senator had said "if you're going to act like Mexicans, we're going to treat you like Mexicans".

It is beyond a reasonable doubt that this vaccine will save about 300 women’s lives every year if it is administered to the great majority of Texas schoolgirls in 6^th grade. Even assuming a cost of $360 per completed vaccine series for 365,000 6^th grade girls, a total cost of $131 million, the cost for each life saved would be about $435,000, a bargain. The net health care costs for these vaccines will be close to zero because we will eliminate the health care costs that would otherwise have been incurred by cervical cancer. These deaths are of young people. Beyond this, cervical cancer will also deprive many children of their mothers which right now impose large social costs on government.

The legislative process is not useful for everything

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Copyright February 07, 2007, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 6, 2007      7:43 AM

MASSET WEIGHS IN ON SPEAKERS RACE

Regular contributor steps back for some historical perspective

The Speaker’s Race.

The horse race aspect of the Speaker’s race has made most of the news. But the unreported story here is how much the position of Speaker has changed over the years. Almost all of the criticism directed at Craddick is valid. But the problem lies in the institution and not Craddick. Another Speaker in the Texas House, just as we will see with another Speaker in the Washington Congress, will probably adapt the bad behaviors of the one they replaced.

Prior to Billy Clayton no Speaker of the Texas House had served more than two two-year terms. In fact prior to Coke Stevenson’s election as Speaker in 1935 and going back to 1846, no one had even served as Speaker for two consecutive terms. Even Sam Rayburn only served as Speaker for one-term in the 32^nd session (1911-13). Billy Clayton served four consecutive terms and Lewis and Laney served five terms. Clearly the office of Speaker of the Texas House has institutionally evolved.

The Texas Constitution says in Article 3 Section 9 subsection (b) that "The House of Representatives shall, when it first assembles, organize temporarily, and thereupon proceed to the election of a Speaker from its own members." That’s it. Even the Lieutenant Governor gets about 10 times as many words. As best as I can determine, and I would welcome hearing from you if I am wrong, the word Speaker never again appears in the Constitution.

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Copyright January 06, 2007, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

November 9, 2006      4:28 PM

MASSET: BOB BULLOCK LIVES!!!

Regular contributor Royal Masset has a unique take on President Bush and a congress controlled by Democrats

The most influential man in Washington in the coming weeks will never be seen on cable TV news channels. His name will not be mentioned on This Week or by Chris Matthews or even Tim Russert. He will never write a tell all book. Yet this person’s advice will direct President Bush as he makes dramatic changes in his leadership style and enters a new era of bipartisanship. His name is Bob Bullock.

Although he died in 1999, the invisible arm of Bullock still guides President Bush. National observers wonder how Bush will govern now that Republicans have lost both houses of Congress. We Texans understand that this is where Bush came in. As Governor his political ballpark was controlled by Democrats. George knows this field.

When first elected George could have engaged in perpetual gridlock as did Bill Clements, the previous Republican Governor. But he found a great coach who mentored him about playing with Democrats. Lt. Governor Bob Bullock taught Bush the political ropes. He did such a good job that his wet behind the ears rookie became US President.

President Bush will shock the Washington Press Corps by how well he adapts to the newly Democrat controlled Congress. Yesterday’s resignation of Rumsfeld will only be the first in several agile moves Bush takes on the political base path. This is where Bush is in his element. This is what he has been trained for. This is who he is.

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Copyright November 09, 2006, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

October 6, 2006      11:38 AM

ROYAL MASSET: SPEAKER HASTERT SHOULD RESIGN

Masset bemoans what has happened to Republican Congress

Dennis Hastert should resign as Speaker of the House. Yes, it isn’t fair. He’s probably not guilty of any crime or violated any rule. So what? He’s the man in charge. If he wants Republicans to keep control of Congress he needs to fall on his sword.

Until the Foley scandal broke last week it appeared that Republicans would keep control of both Houses of Congress. The Irish bookies were giving Republicans nearly three to two odds of keeping control of the House of Representatives. Now those odds have dropped to nearly three to two against Republicans keeping control. This is far and away the fastest shifting of odds in the history of this futures contract.

If Speaker Hastert does nothing the Republican Party will suffer the death of a thousand cuts. We’ll probably still control the U. S. Senate. With some luck we may even keep control of the House. But we will be a very weakened party that will win fewer seats than we would have before the Foley imbroglio. If we keep control it will be by razor thin majorities that will make governing difficult. And we set ourselves up to lose control of the Presidency and Congress in 2008.

The effect of Foley on Texas Republicans

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Copyright October 06, 2006, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

June 1, 2006      9:14 AM

ROYAL MASSET: THE TEXAS REPUBLICAN STATE CONVENTION OF 2006

Former RPT political director Masset looks at GOP conventions past and how they differ from the one beginning today

When one thinks of political conventions one often thinks of great floor fights over important issues or dozens of ballots needed to nominate party leaders. This was true once. It is impossible now. The dirty little secret of state political conventions is that nothing dramatic can happen on the floor of the convention. Unlike conventions in the distant past, Texas’ political conventions today have strict deadlines that preclude real floor fights.

With potential delegate counts well beyond 10,000, only a few convention centers are large enough in Texas to be rented. Most of these impose extreme penalties for overtime, and overtime may not be an option. And of course most delegates would lose their hotel rooms and reserved airline tickets.

I was an RPT staff person at every state convention from 1984 until 1998, usually with the Platform Committee. At all of those conventions any substantive decisions, except the election of the Party Chair and Vice-Chair, were made in the "temporary" party committee meetings held prior to the full convention. The delegates at most conventions are given between 3 to 5 floor votes, including the two ballots for party leadership. This leaves between 1 to 3 votes for items related to the Platform or Rules Committees.

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Copyright June 01, 2006, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

March 16, 2006      5:23 PM

ROYAL MASSET: HANNIBAL IS AT THE GATES

Post primary musings by regular contributor, Royal Masset

I’d like to believe you read my columns because of my unique insights and brilliant analyses. But since you probably know as much as I do about what is going on in Texas politics there is only one major reason you are reading this. You know I’ll give you the latest political line from the Irish Bookies AKA traders of prediction futures.

So let’s cut to the chase. As of this morning the futures markets give Governor Perry a 77% chance of winning. Bell is given an 18% chance and for both Strayhorn and Friedman, your bet or "investment" covers both, are given a 5% chance of winning.

This and similar futures markets have better prediction records than any poll. In the last Presidential race the Irish futures market called the Presidential race right for every state.

Since I’ve found it easy to beat the stock market (OK, I took a bath with Schlotzsky’s) I figured my "insider" knowledge of politics would enable me to find a lot of errors in the prediction markets. Not so. So far I’ve not "invested" one penny. Every prediction I’ve seen made good sense.

The closest I’ve come to finding a kink in the market was in linking New York Times’ online articles about the future of Karl Rove with price rises for futures predicting the lack of Karl’s future. When a NYT article appeared saying how Fitzgerald wanted to re-interview Karl, the probability of his being indicted went from 14% to 27% in one day. I was ready to pounce on the next big article. But so were hundreds of other investors. Within seconds of each new article, the trading futures adjusted their prices. Markets are efficient! The New York Times eventually wrote an article about how its online edition was causing major instantaneous changes in prediction futures markets. If you are wondering why Karl sounds like his old manic self its because his chances of being indicted are down to 6%. Ken Lay’s chances of being convicted of at least 5 charges are 69%..

 

The Future’s market is wrong on the Texas Governor’s race.

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Copyright March 16, 2006, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 17, 2006      9:29 AM

ROYAL MASSET: THE 2006 TEXAS RACE FOR GOVERNOR

Regular contributor Royal Masset makes the case for a Perry win but sees opportunities for Strayhorn

If I were a bookie I would establish the following line on the November vote for Governor, with Rick Perry today having a 90% chance of winning:

Rick Perry 40%

Carole Strayhorn 30%

Felix Alvarado 25%

Kinky Friedman 5%

At the Texas Federation of Women’s convention in Corpus Christi held last November, I gave my predictions about how Republican would do in the 2006 Election. After explaining how the Sixth year itch would affect our federal elections I then said, "Democrats will have no possibility of winning any statewide office and Rick Perry will easily be re-elected Governor."

There was a loud groan from the Audience. My faux pas was obvious and immediately I added the words "I mean whoever our nominee for Governor is which could also be Carole Strayhorn." But then I noticed a strange thing. No one was angry with me. There were no cries for "Strayhorn". What I saw on the faces of many delegates was sadness. No one was mad at me because I had simply told the truth. Rick Perry would be the Republican nominee.

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Copyright January 17, 2006, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

October 6, 2005      11:35 AM

ROYAL MASSET: TRMPAC DID NOT WIN ONE HOUSE SEAT

Say something often enough and people will believe it, even if not true says regular contributor Royal Masset

Everyone knows that Tom DeLay's TRMPAC bought majority control of the State House. The Washington Post editorialized that "The charge concerns the activities of Texans for a Republican Majority (TRMPAC), a political action committee created by Mr. DeLay and his aides to orchestrate the GOP's takeover of the Texas legislature in 2002." The next day the Post editorialized "That result (the election of 17 State House Republicans) gave the party control of the House."

The infallible New York Times said "DeLay had a plan to remake the State Legislature" Our own Austin American Statesman editorialized that "DeLay sowed the seeds that led to a GOP majority in the Texas Legislature after the 2002 elections." Even the venerable Dick DeGuerin said, "Tom DeLay changed the face of Texas politics - nobody can deny that."

I do deny that. Dick DeGuerin is wrong. Tom DeLay and TRMPAC had no impact on the 2002 State House elections. Their efforts won 0 State Rep seats. None. Zero. Nada. Zip. If TRMPAC did not exist the Republicans would have won the same 88 seats.

This is not an attempt to exonerate Tom DeLay of his charges. His alleged violation of the law has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not TRMPAC had any impact on election outcomes. But I think it is very important that the truth be told here. The notion that Texas' legislature can be bought is a lie. By looking at the contested house races it becomes easy to prove with 100% certainty that TRMPAC didn't make a difference in even one State House race.

 

The Evidence

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Copyright October 06, 2005, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

September 29, 2005      7:38 AM

ROYAL MASSET: DELAY, EARLE AND THE “SIXTH YEAR ITCH”

Putting some historical perspective on the Travis County melodrama

In the short run the Delay-Earle feud will be entertaining. In the end Delay will be exonerated. But history marches on and Tom Delay will have fallen too far behind the parade to fully lead it again. Earle’s victory however will be meaningless. Delay will be replaced by another Delay. Since his replacement will not be a Texan, the only sure loser in all of this is Texas.

In the long run this isn’t about campaign finance or even partisan politics. We have an inevitable process in American politics called the "Sixth Year Itch." The "Sixth Year Itch" is the phenomenon that the Presidential Party usually does very poorly in the midterm election during the second term of presidents who made it to two terms. Here is a list of previous "six year itch" scandals:

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Copyright September 29, 2005, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

September 6, 2005      9:42 AM

ROYAL MASSET: KATRINA WILL SAVE NEW ORLEANS

Regular contributor, Royal Masset, reflects on the good that could come from Katrina

I believe New Orleans will become a great city again because of Katrina. It has not been a great city for some time and was in decline long before Katrina. Its public persona as the quirky "Big Easy" city with Mardi Gras, Jazz, Cajun food and Bourbon Street has kept it alive as a great city for tourism and conventions. But this party face masked the fact that this was a deteriorating and dysfunctional city.

I mean no disrespect with the title I chose. I wish Katrina never happened. For those who lost homes and family members this tragedy will bring sadness for the rest of their lives. It is economically devastating. In an attempt to say something positive about this disaster I hope I am not being grossly insensitive.

New Orleans was the Murder Capitol of the USA. For every 100,000 residents New Orleans had 58 murders in 2003. Washington was second with 44 and Detroit 3^rd with 39. Even Los Angeles only had 13 murders. By comparison San Antonio had 7 murders per 100,000 population, McAllen 5, Austin and El Paso 4. Midland has 2 and Mesquite less than 1. Every tourist I know, who went to New Orleans recently, remarked on its seediness and sense of danger.

I have no doubt that New Orleans will not only rise again, it will prosper and thrive. It is unique among all American cities. The great flood of 2005 will become part of a legacy of iconic greatness going back to the 1815 battle of New Orleans.

The Future of New Orleans

Dire predictions say New Orleans will require 6 to 9 months to have the water pumped out and before people can return. They are wrong. Most of the French Quarter, the central business district, infrastructure, and sports venues are dry and intact. They will be operational within weeks. I believe that even the floodwaters will be cleared out in 30 days rather than the 80 now being most authoritatively touted. The big news will be how fast we are rebuilding New Orleans, far faster than expected.

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Copyright September 06, 2005, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

August 3, 2005      3:17 PM

MASSET: THE TIPPING POINT

Regular contributor Royal Masset challenges conventional wisdoms surrounding the school and property tax reform debate

The last best hope for public education in Texas is for the Republican finance and school reform plans to be enacted soon. In recent days the education establishment has seemingly won a great victory by preventing legislative majorities from enacting HB2 and 3. . But this is at best a Pyrrhic victory. Texas is close to a tipping point on public education. Public support for public education will erode rapidly if there is a sense that meaningful school reform is not on the horizon.

Teachers groups and school superintendants are being listened to, as they should be. But they will make a great error if they think they can go back to the good old days when the legislators gave educators blank checks. Temporarily blocking Republican reform in Texas may preserve the status quo but it sure won’t mean any infusion of new money into the system. Delaying reforms won’t mean educators will make better deals in the future. After being burned a number of times, the public and the legislature could lose interest in education and focus on other issues like health care and job creation.

Right now public education is highly regarded thanks in part to Republican led reforms at the state and national levels. Teachers are more qualified than ever. Testing has given us some accountability and appears to be working. Texas public schools and Universities are doing very well in producing graduates who attract good jobs to Texas. Most of us believe public education is an excellent investment.

But after twenty years of arbitrary judicial intervention into our schools, our faith in public education is being eroded. Here are some storm clouds forming on the horizon.

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Copyright August 03, 2005, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

May 30, 2005      12:46 PM

ROYAL MASSET: FINISH YOUR JOB

A clearly angry Royal Masset want the Lege back to finish the job.

"Somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light.
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Texas --The Mighty Republicans have Struck Out."

The Republican leadership only needed to do two things to make this a successful session: produce a reasonable budget and reform public school finance. You failed miserably at both.

What in blazes do you guys think we elected you for? Two years ago you all did a great job. Your form was poor and everybody was at each other’s throats. Which was good because it meant you were under pressure to perform and took your jobs seriously. In this session both legislative Houses are having love fests with nary a word in anger.

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Copyright May 30, 2005, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

March 3, 2005      10:05 AM

ROYAL MASSET: PRESIDENT IS MISSING THE BEST SELLING POINT OF HIS OWN SOCIAL SECURITY PROPOSAL

Masset dismisses the spin and rhetoric and brings some provocative and lucid thinking to issue

Regular contributor Royal Masset is one of the sharpest thinkers on the Texas political scene. In today's piece, he explains why President Bush is on the right track with his efforts to reform social security -- and why he will lose because he is selling the wrong benefit to his initiative.

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Copyright March 03, 2005, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 31, 2005      4:10 PM

ROYAL MASSET: THE 79TH SESSION - THE PERFECT CALM.

Can peace be breaking out in the Legislature??

The 79^th Legislative session may be the dullest in recent memory. The personal and partisan pecking order fights of the last session are over. Governor Perry cannot lose his reelection as long as he makes no major error. The leadership all benefit by everyone looking good. And this spring all political emotion will be drained from Austin. The Eyes of Texas and the world will be on President Bush as he initiates the last great Texan Offensive to remake Washington and the world in our image.

Last Session

It did not take a genius to predict that the last session would be messy and bitter. The new leadership, especially on the House side, had never worked together. The presidential race of 2004 guaranteed extreme partisan rhetoric. Redistricting is the legislative equivalent of aggravated domestic disturbance. Handling a $10 billion shortfall without a tax increase could not be done without appearing a million times meaner than Donald Trump.

And the last session turned out even worse than expected.

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Copyright January 31, 2005, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

December 14, 2004      3:25 PM

ROYAL MASSET: REQUIRING EVERY LEGISLATIVE VOTE TO BE RECORDED IS A BAD IDEA.

A thoughtful look on information overkill

The Texas Poll says that 88% of Texan voters favor requiring legislators to record their votes. Many major newspapers, have editorialized and/or ran articles in favor of recording all votes. Political activists want record votes to prevent legislators from hiding behind unrecorded voice votes. Both political parties support a recorded vote requirement.

"Everyone" agrees on this issue. "Everyone" is wrong.

Requiring any great increase in the number of recorded votes will harm the legislative process. It is bad public policy.

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Copyright December 14, 2004, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

November 15, 2004      3:24 PM

MASSET: HARRIS AND DALLAS REPUBLICANS, YOU HAVE A PROBLEM.

Regular contributor Royal Masset slices and dices the election numbers and comes up with an "ineluctable" conclusion

Republicans could lose control of Dallas County in the next 4 to 8 years. Democrats will likely take over Harris County within the next 8 to 12 years. Ed Sills had it exactly right in his QR column last week when he said one bright spot for Democrats was their ascendancy in urban areas. Republicans will keep building strength in all the non-urban areas of Texas. But for the first time Democrats have a lit road ahead if they are smart enough to follow it.

This column draws heavily from a report I did for Chief Justice Phillips dated January 27, 2003. Material from that study will be in "quotes." He asked me to do an objective study of the changing partisan makeup of district Judges in Dallas County and to project what that makeup would be in the future.

My conclusion in the Phillips study was that "The evidence strongly supports the conclusion that Republican judicial candidates will start losing races in Dallas in 2004 and Harris in 2008. In Dallas, all other factors being equal, the average Democrat judicial candidate at the state district court level will receive more votes than the Republican in 2008. In Houston I believe the best evidence shows that the average Democrat judicial candidate will receive more votes than the Republican in 2012."

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Copyright November 15, 2004, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

July 30, 2004      1:40 PM

MASSET: LOOK TO THE BOOKIES FOR ACCURATE ELECTION PREDICTIONS

Real money on the line

What are the odds that President Bush will be reelected?

According to the Investors at www.tradesports.com , a futures trading exchange, there is a 50.8% chance, as of the moment this article is being written on July 28, that Bush will serve a second term.

I have always found the most reliable predictors of presidential races to be bookies. Pollsters can only measure political races at given point of time. Columnists are compromised by their own internal biases and their readership. But bookies, like anyone making a market that puts real money at risk, have a way of making excellent judgments.

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Copyright July 30, 2004, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

May 5, 2004      7:44 AM

ROYAL MASSET: THE DEMOCRATS WERE RIGHT

"I cannot defend the actions of the House Republican leadership today. They were wrong. The Democrats were right."

I have consistently defended the Republican legislative leadership in these columns. I do believe we had an excellent regular legislative session, that we were in the right on redistricting, that Ronnie Earle may believe he is seeking truth but he’s partisan as all heck, and that our Capitol Press Corps has a big government bias which manifests itself in ad homonym attacks on the Republican leadership and used guilt by association with Tom Delay as a substitute for objective analysis.

One didn’t need a bias against Republicans to be critical of Republican activity yesterday. When John Smithee (R-Amarillo) made his motion to reconsider HB 1 as substituted he said that he didn’t support the bill and if passed as it was it would be a disaster for Texas, but the process required that it move along. Even Rush Limbaugh would go ballistic over accepting mediocrity. The whole day was like that.

I have to assume the reader has a good deal of knowledge of how the legislature works and has some notion of what happened today. One could write a depressing book about what happened. I’ll just try to hit some points where meaningful lessons might be learned.

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Copyright May 05, 2004, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

May 3, 2004      10:33 AM

ROYAL MASSET: SLOT MACHINE TAX WILL HARM TEXAS

Masset lays it on the line about absent leaders and bad public policy

I love gambling. When I was eleven years old I ran a casino in the basement of our house. One friend ran the roulette wheel, another the birdcage and I played poker. At Princeton I was one of, if not the best Poker player on campus. When I first came to Texas, as a UT graduate student in 1967, there was no easy money available to cover school expenses so most of us resorted to creative financing. Part of my education funding came from poker winnings. I frequently played at the Orange and White and the Castilian where pots often were over $1000, pretty heady stuff for impoverished students. The rooms were smoked filled, the boozed flowed, and we often had a dozen or more spectators, many of whom were nice enough to have contributed their pocket money, watches and stereo’s to our cause. I was universally known as the "Princeton Kid" and God I loved it so.

I am still pro-gambling. But for the life of me the proposal to raise money for school children by installing 40,000 slot machines makes no sense. This isn’t gambling. It’s theft and will damage our children far more than help them.

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Copyright May 03, 2004, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

March 5, 2004      4:04 PM

ROYAL MASSET: TAKING TEXAS OBSERVER TO TASK

Masset argues that TO's analysis was mythology

The problem with responding to rumors is that the response often gives the rumors more credibility than they deserve. Still, there comes a time when a response is necessary, lest naïve readers confuse noise with signal. Governor Perry responded today to one set of false rumors. This column is in response to another set of rumors.

On March 1 Quorum Report, under the heading "Texas Observer connects the dots" gave us a link an Article in the February 27 Texas Observer entitled " Scandal in the Speakers Office." When I read it I thought it was absurd. But then I realized that in the absence of any other information some of this article's conclusions might become conventional wisdom. Rather than have the media unwittingly repeat garbage written by people who don't know what they are talking about, I felt it necessary to provide the facts I know that dispute some of the myths circulating about Speaker Craddick and Tom DeLay.

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Copyright March 05, 2004, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

February 17, 2004      9:30 AM

MASSET: EDUCATION REFORM - INCREASE STUDENT TIME ON TASK

Forget complicated formulas and breakthrough education theories. Royal Masset looks at a low cost school performance enhancer

 The most important variable that affects student learning is "Time on Task".

Now that we are on the brink of a special session we will hear unremitting debates about teacher/student ratios, expenditures per student, vouchers, extracurricular activities, reorganizing administration and utilizing of teaching methods and emerging technologies. Perhaps because it seems so obvious and simple, there will be very little discussion about the number of school days that students attend each year. This would be tragic because this one variable will have more impact on student learning than all the other variables combined and would be simple and inexpensive to implement.

Students at my son's school are scheduled to have 175 days of instruction in the 2003-2004 school year, which I presume is universal in Texas' public schools.

With very little extra funding this could be increased to 195 days. Two "in-service" days should be converted to school days. Seven vacation days can be eliminated. The school year should be increased by eleven days. This would not require one extra cent spent on capital costs. It would not require any tinkering with school organization or curriculum. At most this 20% increase in educational productivity would increase costs per student 4-7%. It is simplistic. So what? Why should we spend billions of dollars on confusing solutions that may not work when we can spend less on a simple solution that will work?

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Copyright February 17, 2004, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 14, 2004      4:14 PM

ROYAL MASSET: THIS IS A FAIR MAP, MORE COMPACT THAN MOST

Masset compares this congressional maps based on compactness and other standards

In the Quorum Report last May I wrote of the Congressional redistricting map proposed in HB 3, "This map is unfair. It is not good for Texas. The Senate should reject it and produce a map whose congressional districts are fair and compact."

The map that was finally produced and will be used is fair and compact.

Fairness is in the eye of the reader, but compactness is an objective measurement that has some bearing on fairness. The simple truth is that the congressional lines passed in 2003 (as plan C01374) (see http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/) in the 3^rd Special Session (2003) and approved by the 3 Judge Federal Panel are much more compact than the lines drawn in 1991 (plan C0675) and even those redrawn in 1996 by Federal Judges (C01000 on Redviewer although also known as C0746)).

Before going into the numbers I ask the reader for one simple favor. Go to Redviewer

(see http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/) and just look at the different maps. When you look at the 2003 map you don’t see flying elephants or bras or other weird shapes. The current map is surprisingly compact, considering the unremitting hysteria about it, and clearly strives to represent real communities of interest.

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Copyright January 14, 2004, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

December 8, 2003      2:56 PM

ROYAL MASSET: DISCOVERING MEXICO

A twenty year pilgrimage

It is all Bob Sneed's fault. At an Austin City Council meeting in 1978, on an issue now lost to memory, he stated "The future of Austin lies with Mexico." That simple remark changed my life forever.

Following Sneed's advice to "Go South" I drove monthly to Saltillo for over twenty years. For the last seven of those years the purpose of those visits changed from commerce to courtship. My Saltillo girlfriend Elsa Ramos and I alternately drove 820 miles each month to see each other. The long distance romance flourished. Our children Elcita Isabel and Ernesto now make the same monthly trek.

This article will be about some of the things I learned from these trips. The future of Texas does lie with Mexico. Texas will never compete equally with New York in trade with Europe. We will never compete equally with California in trade with the Pacific Rim nations No one can compete equally with Texas in trade with Mexico and Latin America.

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Copyright December 08, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

September 29, 2003      4:08 PM

MASSET: THE NEXT STEP IN EDUCATION ACCOUNTABILITY

Proposes shifting the nexus of accountability measurements

>

One simple education reform will transform Texas' public schools. It will make teachers more accountable and give principals more authority. It will ensure that the record of progress of individual students never is lost in Texas. It will allow research to pinpoint those teaching methods and other variables that improve student learning and those that don't. It is an idea that has been politically impossible to implement in Texas. Until now.

Student achievement in verbal skills and math for every student should be tested every year. The effectiveness of different teachers in improving the verbal and math skills of the students in their classes can now be objectively measured.

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Copyright September 29, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

September 4, 2003      5:41 PM

ROYAL MASSET: KILL ALL THE LAWYERS, Part 2

The exciting conclusion to this unorthodox view

The Passage of Prop 12 won't decrease Health Care Costs

I'm voting for Prop 12 because on the margins I think it will help some pediatricians and make it possible for more doctors to serve in rural areas. It may slow down some cost increases for a year or two. But I'll be shocked if it actually lowered the cost of health care in Texas. The impact of lawyers on rising medical costs has been way overstated. Blaming lawyers is a red herring. Our media must give the medical community the scrutiny it gives private industry and politicians. At a time when high technology is bringing the cost of everything else down, the health care community seems to think it is immune to economic laws and can keep raising prices.

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Copyright September 04, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

September 3, 2003      3:07 PM

ROYAL MASSET: KILL ALL THE LAWYERS, Part 1

A not so orthodox look at the legal profession

I’m no fan of the way the legal profession has turned tort law into a protection racket. I’ll be voting for Proposition 12. I think a lot more tort reform is needed, such as making some losers pay. When in Shakespeare’s play Henry the VI an actor shouts "The first thing we do, Let’s kill all the lawyers" I stand up and cheer.¹

But at a recent gathering of some of Texas finest political minds I heard an almost frenzied antipathy towards lawyers. In the interest of good public policy I found myself defending the legal profession.

The Case for Lawyers

The only alternative to lawyers is an incredibly strong central bureaucracy. Lawyers are a free enterprise profession. They are privatization at its best. Texans pay tens of billions of dollars, collected by taxes, to pay health care providers and educators. We pay almost nothing in taxes to lawyers.

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Copyright September 03, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

July 11, 2003      4:00 PM

MASSET PART 2: WHY THE REPUBLICAN HB3 MAP IS A POOR PLAN

Remember, communities of interest

Critics of HB 3 focused on the argument that the main purpose of the Republican plan was to gain Republican seats by destroying the districts of specific Democrat Congressmen. They are absolutely right.

Even in the fairest redistricting some incumbents may be have to be paired or placed in districts where they will lose. But for the life of me, when I look at the HB 3 map and some earlier antecedent maps, I can only conclude that about half a dozen Democrats were targeted for extermination and their districts were carved up to accomplish this. The rest of the state map was built around these. In my opinion destroying political opponents through redistricting is the moral cousin of assassination.

Those who say the politicians and not the voters are picking the winners in HB 3 are correct. Although not in the latest map, the plan to divide Travis County into four different congressional districts was clearly meant to remove Lloyd Doggett. I never voted for Lloyd and never will. But Austin, the self-described weird city, should have the right to elect its own liberal Congressman.

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Copyright July 11, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

July 10, 2003      12:34 PM

MASSET, PART 1: THE REAL NUMBERS PROVE THE NEED FOR REDISTRICTING

Empirical demonstration of packing Republicans combined with incumbent advantage

Nietzsche said "when you fight monsters do not become one."

The 1991 Texas Congressional remap was a monster and correctly described by the Almanac of American Politics and other nonpartisan redistricting watchdog groups as providing Texas the worst, most unfair gerrymandering in the United States.

The recently created House plan in HB 3 is also a monster. It may not be as bad as the 1991 redistricting effort, which created hundreds of unoccupied precincts that resulted in districts resembling Rorshach inkblots. But HB3's districts are not compact and it breaks up many communities of interest and political subdivisions.

This map is unfair. It is not good for Texas. The Senate should reject it and produce a map whose congressional districts are fair and compact. The Senate should make passage of any redistricting map this called session contingent on passage of a Senator Wentworth type of non-legislative boundaries commission, which will draw all future redistricting lines.

The Case for Congressional Redistricting in Texas

Arguments that redistricting at this time is unnecessary are bogus. The Texas delegation will influence hundreds of billions, or trillions of dollars over the next decade, much of this impacting Texas. It is imperative that the Congressional House Members from Texas represent the will of the people of Texas. Voters should elect their representatives. Representatives should not select their voters.

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Copyright July 10, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

June 19, 2003      4:34 PM

JEFF CROSBY: A RESPONSE TO ROYAL MASSET

A Democrat's response to Masset's criticism of the media

"I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly."

-- Mohammed Saeed "Baghdad Bob" al-Sahaf

Is Royal Masset auditioning to be the Baghdad Bob of Texas Republican Party?

That's the only reason I can come up with to figure out why Mr. Masset decided to anger people who buy ink by the barrel and to inflict upon Harvey's subscribers his comical revision of recent history (The Big Loser in the 78th Session is the Media).

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Copyright June 19, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

June 10, 2003      2:35 PM

MASSET: THE BIG LOSER IN THE 78TH SESSION IS THE MEDIA

Masset takes on media coverage; says they missed the point

Rather than provide the reader a list of best or worst of this session, we all having pretty much the same thoughts, I will attempt to bring out what hasn't been said about this session, mainly that the Texas media did a horrible job reporting what happened and did very little to make this a better legislative session through articles that informed public opinion.

The big loser in this session is the media. After a few years of good behavior they slipped into a mean spirited groupthink that served no one. The Texas legislature has moved on. Its time for our media and their editorial boards to move into the 21^st century.

The 78^th Legislature will go down in Texas history as one of the most productive. For the first time in this author's memory the legislature made substantive changes in state government. These changes are good. They will increase the strength of the Governor and make the bureaucracy more responsive to our state leaders. The fiscal restraint of this session will benefit the great majority of Texans.

Tom Craddick has emerged as a great legislative leader. Perry has shown himself to be a charismatic Governor. His surrounded himself with the some of the most knowledgeable and dedicated people to ever work in state government, such as Mike Toomey and Ric Williamson, and it showed.

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Copyright June 10, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

May 5, 2003      11:38 AM

ROYAL MASSET: CSHB 5 IS A BAD PLAN

Says it will not solve Robin Hood and recommends its demise

CSHB 5 by Shapiro, AKA the Dewhurst School Finance "Solution", reduces property taxes for most owners by closer to one-third than one-half. It will not end Robin Hood. It consists of new taxes for service providers that are worse than an income tax for those covered. It will hurt the ability of service providers to compete in different states. It will result in a net tax increase. It replaces federally deductible taxes with taxes that aren?t deductible. It decreases local control. It dedicates large amounts of future state revenue, giving future legislators decreased discretion to solve the problems of their age. This is a well-intended, creative bill that should be derailed and used as part of a more deliberated plan.

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Copyright May 05, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 20, 2003      10:54 AM

ROYAL MASSET: HOW TO END ROBIN HOOD AND FIX SCHOOL FINANCE

A fresh view of one of the thorniest problems

Governor Perry told an Austin American Statesman reporter that school finance would not be solved in this session of the legislature. Last Wednesday (January 15^th), the Statesman saw fit to publish 14 letters to the editor that weren't real kind to the Governor.

Governor Perry had it right. In fact it would be irresponsible to "find" a solution to school finance this session.

The only way to end the school finance imbroglio is through amending the Texas Constitution. Until the constitution is amended any "solution" is just political rhetoric. Voters must be given the chance to amend the Texas Constitution this November. Only after they amend it can the legislature pass meaningful enacting legislation that will then allow the development of a rational plan of school finance.

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Copyright January 20, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 8, 2003      11:06 AM

ROYAL MASSET: HEALTH INSURANCE IS NOT THE SAME AS HEALTH CARE.

A provocative look at health care challenges facing lawmakers

Texans would be better off if our legislators would concentrate on finding solutions to specific health care problems rather then incrementally playing around with insurance proposals that have little or no impact on our health.

Health Care will be a major focus of the legislature. Unfortunately the complexity and emotional spark of health care issues subject them to horrible political solutions. Since few if any legislators understand, much less can articulate, health care issues, we wind up with arcane debates over the merits of incremental changes in Medicaid, CHIP and other insurance programs.

Health Insurance has become equated with health care. It isn't.

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Copyright January 08, 2003, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

November 7, 2002      4:30 PM

ROYAL MASSET: THOUGHTS ON THE 2002 ELECTION

From the front lines

The simple truth about the 2002 election in Texas is that there were no surprises. The main reason for this is that over the last 40 years Texas has ineluctably become an extremely Republican state. Over the last several election cycles close to 60% of all the votes cast for legislative candidates have been for the Republican candidate. Barring a major scandal or social upheaval it is almost mathematically impossible for a Democrat candidate to bridge that 20% handicap.

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Copyright November 07, 2002, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

June 27, 2002      3:59 PM

ROYAL MASSET: THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK

Masset's take on the emerging election strategy of the Texas Association of Business

Disclaimer: Several candidate clients of Royal Masset have received the endorsement of the Texas Association of Business' BACPAC.

There are very few surprises in the "insider" world of Texas politics. The recent political activity of the Texas Association of Business is one.

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Copyright June 27, 2002, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

April 11, 2002      4:45 PM

MASSET: MY TAKE ON FREEPAC

With primary season over, Royal Masset has returned to share his insights

 It is written that the meek will inherit the earth. Unfortunately the earth will be in probate for a few thousand years.

I have known Richard Ford, President of FreePAC, for over twenty years. Last year I was a consultant for FreePAC doing research for their Texas Conservative Report's Legislative Vote Ratings and giving advice on the creation of several FreePAC redistricting plans that were presented to the Legislative Redistricting Board.

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Copyright April 11, 2002, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

August 22, 2001      3:05 PM

ROYAL MASSET COMPLIMENTS THE LEGISLATIVE REDISTRICTING BOARD

Pleased with their maps

This author is extremely pleased with the final Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB) House and Senate redistricting plans. The last minute complaining by Speaker Laney and other incumbents is understandable and part of normal politics. But they are wrong.

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Copyright August 22, 2001, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

May 23, 2001      10:52 AM

ROYAL MASSET: AN OPEN LETTER TO THE LEGISLATIVE REDISTRICTING BOARD

You have it in your power to do a great deal of good for Texas.

I consider four of you to be good friends. I will be delivering the message in this open letter to each of you and your staffs personally. I am writing this as an open letter now because things are moving very fast for you. Also, I want what I say to have some impact on the public debate about what you should do.

You have it in your power to do a great deal of good for Texas. All of you are true Texas patriots who care deeply about this state and its people. You want to do the right thing.

We have a major political problem in Texas. In the 2000 general election only one incumbent of our 181 member legislature was defeated. In the 1998 general election two incumbents were defeated. Only nine State House members of the 77^th Session were Freshmen. At that rate the average legislator would serve for over 33 years.

The core of this problem is that gerrymandering in 1991 resulted in over 90% of the legislature's districts being unwinnable by the party they weren't drawn for. Political insiders understand that most legislative elections are as predetermined and fixed as professional wrestling. Voters may not understand the statistical reasons their votes don't count. But they correctly grasp their votes don't have any impact and become apathetic.

Because districts are packed in favor of both parties it is not surprising that we have a very ideological legislature. Few legislators represent swing districts. Swing districts offer legislators their best chance to see problems and solutions among diverse constituents. Gerrymandering has given us legislators representing districts that are extremely partisan and homogenous. Texas is losing the pragmatic middle ground that has served us so well.

You are faced with an impossible situation. Every legislator who controls your budget wants your protection. Your party will demand party loyalty and flood you with maps and legal strategies and tell you that you owe them.

The only thing you owe anybody is to do your very best to serve the people of Texas.

Here are my suggestions that will help you do what is right while limiting the political influence that will distort your judgment.

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Copyright May 23, 2001, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

March 20, 2001      7:37 AM

ROYAL MASSET: MID-SESSION LOOK AT HOW THE LEGE STACKS UP

What will happen this session? Your guess is as good as mine. But I will try to give you what may be a little different way of looking at it.

How do you measure what happens in a legislative session?

About 90% of what happens in any legislative session is the appropriations bill. Another 5%, maybe 5 or 6 bills, are the major spending or tax bills that will impact appropriations, such as for Teacher Health Insurance. The 50 or 100 bills that deal with symbolic or substantive change determine another 4% of the session's productivity. The remaining 4000 bills, including those defeated, determine the last 1% of each session's output.

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Copyright March 20, 2001, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

February 20, 2001      5:46 PM

MASSET: NUMBERS TELL ALL -- REDISTRICTING CORRUPTS ELECTIONS

 

"You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

Oliver Cromwell - who by force of arms adjourned sine die the English Parliament in 1653

In July of 1961, when I was a nerdy kid, Roger Maris appeared to be going to break Babe Ruth's record of 60 homeruns. I calculated the spot at Yankee Stadium he would most likely hit his 61^st or last homerun. I then bought tickets at that spot for the last three games of the season in September. In the last game, Maris' 61^st homerun landed 12 feet behind where I was sitting. Numbers are not abstractions. If you can predict the future you can change the future.

Kids who are number nuts tend to like baseball. Baseball and numbers are inextricably combined. Batting averages, ERA, RBIs, homeruns are essential parts of baseball. In no other sport do numbers dominate the conversation and strategic decision making as they do in baseball.

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Copyright February 20, 2001, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

January 5, 2001      4:02 PM

MASSET: THE COMPUTER CURTAIN DISENFRANCHISES TEXAS VOTERS

Computer driven gerrymandering denies voter will

Why is it that Republicans hold all of Texas' 26 elected statewide offices yet a majority of our legislators are Democrats?

The failure of the Republican Party to achieve commanding legislative majorities in both of Texas' Chambers has been often been blamed on the incompetence of Republican Party of Texas, Tom Craddick (R-Midland), the Christian Right Wing, Texas Trial Lawyers Association or more benignly and somewhat accurately, Speaker Laney's leadership. The truth is far more simple and far more ominous.

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Copyright January 05, 2001, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

November 9, 2000      10:16 PM

MASSET: TWENTY YEARS OF RECOUNTS

Elections are always full of imperfections

The dirty little secret of election night vote counts is that most of them are good guesses. The great majority of elections are won by large enough margins to make questions about the voting accuracy of the election unnecessary.

This is good because democracy requires faith that the stated election outcomes are correct. But in truth there is a lot more error and uncertainty in the election night vote returns than the public realizes.

The tragedy of the Florida recount is that all sorts of errors and human incompetence will be revealed to the world. The media thrives on controversy and stupidity. They will thrive for the next several days. The truth is that the types of errors found in the Florida elections can be found anywhere. Most County Clerks, who see their real job as tending to the records of their county, pray that the next election won't be marred by some horrendous error.

The problem is not fraud. The problem is that Presidential General Elections are held one day every four years and the people who conduct these elections are public-spirited amateurs. Election Judges and Clerks are invariably citizens from our neighborhoods who have the time to take temporary jobs. They must sit at their polling location for twelve hours, fill out tons of forms after the voting ends and then, in counties in Texas which use paper ballots, they must count the votes.

Human beings make mistakes. While working for the Republican Party of Texas I have been an observer in over 20 recounts. It is said that people should avoid seeing how laws are passed and how sausage is made. Watching how election returns are tabulated can be a lot more sickening. Fortunately the public, until today, has been shielded from this trauma.

The largest source of error is not in the counting of ballots. It is the simple tabulation of vote results or misreading of them. Long before vote totals are placed on nice computer spreadsheets at the Elections Division of the Secretary of State some human being somewhere is adding numbers the old fashion way. Thousands of mistakes occur in addition or in number transcription or in data entry -- and they take place in every election.

I am aware of at least 4 elections where errors were made in the thousands (1000) column. In 1996 Judge Keasler -- candidate for Texas Court of Criminal Appeals -- received over 4000 votes from Hidalgo County in the Republican primary. He made it into a runoff and quickly spent six figures for mail and printing. In the canvass it was discovered he received less than 1000 votes from Hidalgo County. As a result, he was booted from was the runoff. (Judge Keasler was ultimately elected to the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals in 1998.)

In 1984 errors were made in the tally of the Democrat Primary race for US Senator. Lloyd Doggett was declared the winner of the runoff. The unhappiness caused by those vote tabulation errors helped motivate the loser, Kent Hance, to run for Governor as a Republican in 1986. That sequence of events gave the Congressman Phil Gramm a head start in the 1984 race for US Senate which he never relinquished..

Most large numerical errors are discovered by the losing candidates -- when they can change the outcome -- and the changes are then made during the canvass.

I am also aware of two other errors of greater than 2000 votes that did not change the outcome of either election. Errors in the hundreds (100) column are common.

Minor errors abound, especially where paper ballots are used.

I have seen dozens of precinct talleys where straight party votes were not added to votes cast for individuals. Or where straight party votes were added to extra votes for candidates in the same party giving them two votes. Or where an override vote is counted along with the opposing straight party vote. Most errors that matter are corrected by the canvass. That is why few recounts produce dramatic changes.

But recounts often turn up misplaced ballots and ballots that were not stored in secured places. In my first recount for the Republican Party of Texas in 1984 the lead changed two times. In one county I had to go before a District Judge and petition him to allow us to count ballots that were incorrectly stored among unused ballots. The County Clerk went before the Judge crying. The next day in another county I found all of their ballots on the floor. Some were in shoeboxes. The ballots from one precinct were tied up with an electrical wire. When we went before a Judge getting a protective order for those ballots that County Clerk was also in tears.

Even when everything else is in order, reading the intent of the voter is difficult to determine on about 1 percent of all paper ballots cast. You can't imagine the different and creative ways people mark their ballots. Some make Christmas trees or other designs from their vote patterns. Some use different colors. Others use pre-Inca type hieroglyphics. Does a little dot mean they intended to vote for that person or decided not to vote for them. What does a weak erasure mean? What does a line mean when all the other votes on the ballot were Xed. What does an X mean when all the other votes were checked?

One of the problems with punch card voting is that every time you recount those ballots the vote numbers go up. Pieces of paper are always falling from those ballots. If the holes in the voting booth didn't line up correctly and a hole isn't punched out you try to determine the intent of the voter by looking at indentations on the ballot. The real nightmare in Florida will begin if the Gore forces, not satisfied with the recount, try to manually determine the intent of voters. From 5,000 to 20,000 ballots in Florida will be for indeterminate candidates. Does this mean Florida elections must always be won by more than 20,000 votes to be legitimate?

All voting systems have major drawbacks. Counting with vote scanners requires Number 2 pencils to fill in the ovals and can't read intent.

I was horrified on Tuesday night when Travis County Clerk Dana DeBeauvoir said that people who didn't vote with pencils shouldn't worry since election workers will fill in their ballots.

Her intentions were good. But how do you determine original voter intent during a recount when an election worker has written over your ballot and determined your intent for you?

Errors abound even here in Travis County. My two 85-year-old parents, who just moved in with me from the notorious Palm Beach County in Florida, registered to vote in Travis County. They sent in perfectly legible cards. The Voter Certificates they received both had substantial errors. For instance, my mother was put in a precinct twenty miles to the north of where we live. In today's Austin American Statesman, it is reported that voters in Precinct 216 of Northern Travis County were given ballots for precinct 351. Eight hundred eighty people voted for a State Representative, a Constable, and City Bonds they weren't entitled to vote for. On the other hand, they couldn't vote for their own State Representative and Constable. Fortunately the outcomes of no races were affected by this error. These errors are the norm and not the exception.

Vote counts are somewhat arbitrary and always will be. As long as human beings conduct elections there will be errors. Some voters will always be confused by the long ballots we have today no matter how they are printed or what voting systems are used. Hopefully voting systems will be improved to make voting easier and more accurate.

Voter intent will always be questionable for at least one tenth of a percent of all votes cast. If election outcomes require the flawless conduct of an election and certainty of the result, we will never be able to hold an election. It is important that the vote count follow the rule of law and disputes be handled expeditiously. Democracy is not immortal. Once belief in our election process dies, democracy dies.

Copyright November 09, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

October 13, 2000      4:25 PM

MASSET: WHERE IS AL GORE'S CAMPAIGN TEAM?

Al Gore has one major weakness that has not yet been "discovered" by the pundits.

Al Gore has one major weakness that has not yet been "discovered" by the pundits. He does not appear to have a good campaign team. Where are they?

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Copyright October 13, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

September 5, 2000      8:14 AM

MASSET: HOW EVEN PHONY POLL NUMBERS PRESSURE A CAMPAIGN

Why accurate polling is even tougher this year

The most recent Newsweek poll says that Gore leads Bush by 10%.

Balderdash. This Newsweek poll is just flat wrong. In the eleven other polls conducted in the last two weeks covered by PollingReport.Com, Gore never has had a lead of more than 4%. Last week's Gallup/CNN/USA poll showing Bush in the lead received less than one twentieth the media coverage of the recent Newsweek poll. Dog bites man is not news. Man bites dog, or Gore leads by 10%, makes news.

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Copyright September 05, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

July 18, 2000      6:43 PM

MASSET: A FEW THINGS YOU DID NOT KNOW ABOUT VOTER TURNOUT

Presidential years have seen greatest GOP gains in Texas House. After this year, things may be different.

Republicans have made their greatest gains in the Texas House of Representatives during Presidential election years. Since 1964, when Republican Frank Cahoon of Midland stood alone amongst 149 Democrats, Republicans have gained seventy-one State Representative seats. Nineteen of these seats were won during non-Presidential election cycles. Fifty-two seats were added during presidential year election cycles.

Republicans have gained an average of 2.1 House seats during each non-presidential election cycle compared to an average gain of 6.5 seats during Presidential election cycles. The fact that Republicans pick up more than three times as many seats during Presidential election cycles is not a random quirk. The odds of this happening by chance are about those of winning the state lottery. This report will explain the reasons Republicans make their greatest gains during Presidential elections.

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Copyright July 18, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

June 19, 2000      3:24 PM

MASSET REPORTS ON THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION

But, as always, Masset shares insights from the back room.

"Before commenting on the Texas Republican Convention held last week, the reader of this column should be aware of the fact that I am retained by the Republican Party of Texas as a Political Consultant and provided administrative support for the recent convention. My viewpoint will probably not be objective.

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Copyright June 19, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

May 12, 2000      1:43 PM

MASSET: WHY GWB WILL WIN

This is not your normal pep rally analysis

The odds are four out of five that Governor George Bush will be the next President of the United States.

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Copyright May 12, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

March 22, 2000      4:44 PM

MASSET: DRAMATIC EVIDENCE OF TEXAS POWER SHIFT

Just Take a Look At Historical Primary Numbers

The clearest evidence of the growth of the Republican Party in Texas is the growth of the Republican primary voter turnout relative to the Democrat turnout since 1972. In 1972, the 114,007 voters participating in the Republican Presidential primary were only 5% as large as the 2,192,903 voters in the Democrat primary. On March 14, the 1,159,645 voters in the Republican primary were 146% as large as the Democrat voter turnout. The following chart says it all.

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Copyright March 22, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

February 25, 2000      1:03 PM

MASSET: BUSH BENEFITS FROM OPEN PRIMARIES

The view is counter-intuitive but his reasoning is sound.

George Bush will be the Republican nominee for President. Karl Rove has done an outstanding job. As long as George Bush stays on message and doesn't adapt the weird strategies suggested by people who have no earthly idea what they are talking about, like David Broder, he will do fine. The Republican Party will be the big winner as a result of our willingness to have real primaries which allow voters to select our nominee.

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Copyright February 25, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

February 4, 2000      10:25 AM

OUR NEW REPUBLICAN WRITER -- ROYAL MASSET

Masset provides a little background and then examines GOP efforts to win a majority in the Texas House

"I have always been amazed at how much political commentary is dead drop wrong. Talking heads in Washington and many commentators in Texas appear to do little more than listen to each other and try to put new spins on old recycled opinions.

One great source of error is the tendency to view an institution, such as the Republican or Democratic Party as if it were one person. "The Republican Party thinks that by using?"

The Republican Party of Texas has a Chairman, Officers, a 62 member Executive Committee, 254 County and over 8,000 Precinct Chairmen, almost 2,000 officeholders and as many candidates, several hundred clubs, seventeen thousand delegates who attend our state conventions and tens of thousands of other activists. The Republican Party of Texas is not a person. Thinking of the Republican Party as one person limits your ability to understand it as the group of independent feisty ornery Texans it is.

Over the years Harvey Kronberg has been one of the few "reporters" who would call me to find out what was actually going on. Like Francis Bacon, who settled the question of how many teeth horses had by counting them instead of relying on scripture and scholars, Kronberg believes in seeing what is out there. This is why the Quorum Report has such a loyal following and influence among top opinion leaders in Texas.

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Copyright February 04, 2000, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved